We have released the summer Arctic sea-ice forecast of this year.
Arctic Sea Ice Forecast 2017
*You can access same contents from here.
The forecast shows the daily sea ice concentration map from July 1 to September 15. First report was released on May 19, and the second report considering the ice condition until May was released on June 28.
Our forecast is based on the relationship between the winter ice movement and summer ice area. We used daily sea-ice concentration and ice velocity data derived from the satellite images by passive-microwave sensors, AMSR-E and AMSR2.
Minimum ice extent in September is expected to be about 4.6 million square kilometer, which is a little larger than the last year. Sea ice in the Laptev Sea and Chukchi Sea is expected to be thin and retreat quickly. On the Canadian side, sea ice in the Beaufort Sea is expected to be thick and retreat slowly compared with the last year.
We are planning to release the third report of the forecast at the end of July and fall-winter report in September.
We will improve the method of the ice prediction to contribute the safe and efficient use of the Arctic.
Noriaki Kimura (The University of Tokyo)
Predicted sea ice cover on September 11, 2017.